Evaluation Climate Variability (ERA5) CMIP6

36 figures · 1990–2014

CMIP6 Multi-Model Mean Context

Comparison with CMIP6 ensemble mean from 11 members.

Contributing models: ACCESS-ESM1-5, AWI-CM-1-1-MR, CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-ESM2-1, EC-Earth3, FGOALS-g3, GISS-E2-1-G, INM-CM5-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, MRI-ESM2-0

Total Cloud Cover — Variability (STD)

Total Cloud Cover — Variability (STD)
Variables clt
Models ifs-fesom, CMIP6 MMM, MPI-ESM1-2-LR/r1i1p1f1, GISS-E2-1-G/r1i1p1f2, IPSL-CM6A-LR/r1i1p1f1, ACCESS-ESM1-5/r1i1p1f1, EC-Earth3/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-CM6-1/r1i1p1f2, AWI-CM-1-1-MR/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-ESM2-1/r1i1p1f2, FGOALS-g3/r1i1p1f1, INM-CM5-0/r1i1p1f1, MRI-ESM2-0/r1i1p1f1
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units %
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 7.62 · Diff Gmean: 0.41 · Rmse: 1.14
CMIP6 MMM Std Gmean: 8.07 · Diff Gmean: 0.86 · Rmse: 1.33

Total Cloud Cover — Variability Bias (STD diff)

Total Cloud Cover — Variability Bias (STD diff)
Variables clt
Models ifs-fesom, CMIP6 MMM, MPI-ESM1-2-LR/r1i1p1f1, GISS-E2-1-G/r1i1p1f2, IPSL-CM6A-LR/r1i1p1f1, ACCESS-ESM1-5/r1i1p1f1, EC-Earth3/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-CM6-1/r1i1p1f2, AWI-CM-1-1-MR/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-ESM2-1/r1i1p1f2, FGOALS-g3/r1i1p1f1, INM-CM5-0/r1i1p1f1, MRI-ESM2-0/r1i1p1f1
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units %
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 7.62 · Diff Gmean: 0.41 · Rmse: 1.14
CMIP6 MMM Std Gmean: 8.07 · Diff Gmean: 0.86 · Rmse: 1.33

Surface Latent Heat Flux — Variability (STD)

Surface Latent Heat Flux — Variability (STD)
Variables hfls
Models ifs-fesom
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units W/m2
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 15.31 · Diff Gmean: 1.57 · Rmse: 3.84

Surface Latent Heat Flux — Variability Bias (STD diff)

Surface Latent Heat Flux — Variability Bias (STD diff)
Variables hfls
Models ifs-fesom
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units W/m2
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 15.31 · Diff Gmean: 1.57 · Rmse: 3.84

Surface Sensible Heat Flux — Variability (STD)

Surface Sensible Heat Flux — Variability (STD)
Variables hfss
Models ifs-fesom
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units W/m2
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 6.76 · Diff Gmean: 0.87 · Rmse: 2.80

Surface Sensible Heat Flux — Variability Bias (STD diff)

Surface Sensible Heat Flux — Variability Bias (STD diff)
Variables hfss
Models ifs-fesom
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units W/m2
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 6.76 · Diff Gmean: 0.87 · Rmse: 2.80

Total Precipitation Rate — Variability (STD)

Total Precipitation Rate — Variability (STD)
Variables pr
Models ifs-fesom, CMIP6 MMM, MPI-ESM1-2-LR/r1i1p1f1, GISS-E2-1-G/r1i1p1f2, IPSL-CM6A-LR/r1i1p1f1, ACCESS-ESM1-5/r1i1p1f1, EC-Earth3/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-CM6-1/r1i1p1f2, AWI-CM-1-1-MR/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-ESM2-1/r1i1p1f2, FGOALS-g3/r1i1p1f1, INM-CM5-0/r1i1p1f1, MRI-ESM2-0/r1i1p1f1
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units kg/m2/s
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 0.00 · Diff Gmean: 0.00 · Rmse: 0.00
CMIP6 MMM Std Gmean: 0.00 · Diff Gmean: 0.00 · Rmse: 0.00

Total Precipitation Rate — Variability Bias (STD diff)

Total Precipitation Rate — Variability Bias (STD diff)
Variables pr
Models ifs-fesom, CMIP6 MMM, MPI-ESM1-2-LR/r1i1p1f1, GISS-E2-1-G/r1i1p1f2, IPSL-CM6A-LR/r1i1p1f1, ACCESS-ESM1-5/r1i1p1f1, EC-Earth3/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-CM6-1/r1i1p1f2, AWI-CM-1-1-MR/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-ESM2-1/r1i1p1f2, FGOALS-g3/r1i1p1f1, INM-CM5-0/r1i1p1f1, MRI-ESM2-0/r1i1p1f1
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units kg/m2/s
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 0.00 · Diff Gmean: 0.00 · Rmse: 0.00
CMIP6 MMM Std Gmean: 0.00 · Diff Gmean: 0.00 · Rmse: 0.00

Mean Sea Level Pressure — Variability (STD)

Mean Sea Level Pressure — Variability (STD)
Variables psl
Models ifs-fesom, CMIP6 MMM, MPI-ESM1-2-LR/r1i1p1f1, GISS-E2-1-G/r1i1p1f2, IPSL-CM6A-LR/r1i1p1f1, ACCESS-ESM1-5/r1i1p1f1, EC-Earth3/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-CM6-1/r1i1p1f2, AWI-CM-1-1-MR/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-ESM2-1/r1i1p1f2, FGOALS-g3/r1i1p1f1, INM-CM5-0/r1i1p1f1, MRI-ESM2-0/r1i1p1f1
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units Pa
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 234.58 · Diff Gmean: 2.54 · Rmse: 23.32
CMIP6 MMM Std Gmean: 247.65 · Diff Gmean: 15.68 · Rmse: 27.54

Mean Sea Level Pressure — Variability Bias (STD diff)

Mean Sea Level Pressure — Variability Bias (STD diff)
Variables psl
Models ifs-fesom, CMIP6 MMM, MPI-ESM1-2-LR/r1i1p1f1, GISS-E2-1-G/r1i1p1f2, IPSL-CM6A-LR/r1i1p1f1, ACCESS-ESM1-5/r1i1p1f1, EC-Earth3/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-CM6-1/r1i1p1f2, AWI-CM-1-1-MR/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-ESM2-1/r1i1p1f2, FGOALS-g3/r1i1p1f1, INM-CM5-0/r1i1p1f1, MRI-ESM2-0/r1i1p1f1
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units Pa
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 234.58 · Diff Gmean: 2.54 · Rmse: 23.32
CMIP6 MMM Std Gmean: 247.65 · Diff Gmean: 15.68 · Rmse: 27.54

Surface Downwelling Longwave — Variability (STD)

Surface Downwelling Longwave — Variability (STD)
Variables rlds
Models ifs-fesom, CMIP6 MMM, MPI-ESM1-2-LR/r1i1p1f1, GISS-E2-1-G/r1i1p1f2, IPSL-CM6A-LR/r1i1p1f1, ACCESS-ESM1-5/r1i1p1f1, EC-Earth3/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-CM6-1/r1i1p1f2, AWI-CM-1-1-MR/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-ESM2-1/r1i1p1f2, FGOALS-g3/r1i1p1f1, INM-CM5-0/r1i1p1f1, MRI-ESM2-0/r1i1p1f1
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units W/m2
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 7.65 · Diff Gmean: 0.60 · Rmse: 1.32
CMIP6 MMM Std Gmean: 8.02 · Diff Gmean: 0.98 · Rmse: 1.35

Surface Downwelling Longwave — Variability Bias (STD diff)

Surface Downwelling Longwave — Variability Bias (STD diff)
Variables rlds
Models ifs-fesom, CMIP6 MMM, MPI-ESM1-2-LR/r1i1p1f1, GISS-E2-1-G/r1i1p1f2, IPSL-CM6A-LR/r1i1p1f1, ACCESS-ESM1-5/r1i1p1f1, EC-Earth3/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-CM6-1/r1i1p1f2, AWI-CM-1-1-MR/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-ESM2-1/r1i1p1f2, FGOALS-g3/r1i1p1f1, INM-CM5-0/r1i1p1f1, MRI-ESM2-0/r1i1p1f1
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units W/m2
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 7.65 · Diff Gmean: 0.60 · Rmse: 1.32
CMIP6 MMM Std Gmean: 8.02 · Diff Gmean: 0.98 · Rmse: 1.35

Surface Net Longwave Radiation — Variability (STD)

Surface Net Longwave Radiation — Variability (STD)
Variables rls
Models ifs-fesom
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units W/m2
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 5.74 · Diff Gmean: 0.17 · Rmse: 1.04

Surface Net Longwave Radiation — Variability Bias (STD diff)

Surface Net Longwave Radiation — Variability Bias (STD diff)
Variables rls
Models ifs-fesom
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units W/m2
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 5.74 · Diff Gmean: 0.17 · Rmse: 1.04

Surface Net Longwave Radiation (Clear-Sky) — Variability (STD)

Surface Net Longwave Radiation (Clear-Sky) — Variability (STD)
Variables rlscs
Models ifs-fesom
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units W/m2
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 4.58 · Diff Gmean: 0.44 · Rmse: 1.08

Surface Net Longwave Radiation (Clear-Sky) — Variability Bias (STD diff)

Surface Net Longwave Radiation (Clear-Sky) — Variability Bias (STD diff)
Variables rlscs
Models ifs-fesom
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units W/m2
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 4.58 · Diff Gmean: 0.44 · Rmse: 1.08

TOA Net Longwave Radiation — Variability (STD)

TOA Net Longwave Radiation — Variability (STD)
Variables rlt
Models ifs-fesom
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units W/m2
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 8.45 · Diff Gmean: 0.59 · Rmse: 1.88

TOA Net Longwave Radiation — Variability Bias (STD diff)

TOA Net Longwave Radiation — Variability Bias (STD diff)
Variables rlt
Models ifs-fesom
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units W/m2
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 8.45 · Diff Gmean: 0.59 · Rmse: 1.88

TOA Net Longwave Radiation (Clear-Sky) — Variability (STD)

TOA Net Longwave Radiation (Clear-Sky) — Variability (STD)
Variables rltcs
Models ifs-fesom
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units W/m2
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 3.56 · Diff Gmean: 0.28 · Rmse: 0.65

TOA Net Longwave Radiation (Clear-Sky) — Variability Bias (STD diff)

TOA Net Longwave Radiation (Clear-Sky) — Variability Bias (STD diff)
Variables rltcs
Models ifs-fesom
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units W/m2
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 3.56 · Diff Gmean: 0.28 · Rmse: 0.65

Surface Downwelling Shortwave — Variability (STD)

Surface Downwelling Shortwave — Variability (STD)
Variables rsds
Models ifs-fesom, CMIP6 MMM, MPI-ESM1-2-LR/r1i1p1f1, GISS-E2-1-G/r1i1p1f2, IPSL-CM6A-LR/r1i1p1f1, ACCESS-ESM1-5/r1i1p1f1, EC-Earth3/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-CM6-1/r1i1p1f2, AWI-CM-1-1-MR/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-ESM2-1/r1i1p1f2, FGOALS-g3/r1i1p1f1, INM-CM5-0/r1i1p1f1, MRI-ESM2-0/r1i1p1f1
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units W/m2
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 12.66 · Diff Gmean: 0.90 · Rmse: 2.43
CMIP6 MMM Std Gmean: 13.85 · Diff Gmean: 2.10 · Rmse: 2.90

Surface Downwelling Shortwave — Variability Bias (STD diff)

Surface Downwelling Shortwave — Variability Bias (STD diff)
Variables rsds
Models ifs-fesom, CMIP6 MMM, MPI-ESM1-2-LR/r1i1p1f1, GISS-E2-1-G/r1i1p1f2, IPSL-CM6A-LR/r1i1p1f1, ACCESS-ESM1-5/r1i1p1f1, EC-Earth3/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-CM6-1/r1i1p1f2, AWI-CM-1-1-MR/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-ESM2-1/r1i1p1f2, FGOALS-g3/r1i1p1f1, INM-CM5-0/r1i1p1f1, MRI-ESM2-0/r1i1p1f1
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units W/m2
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 12.66 · Diff Gmean: 0.90 · Rmse: 2.43
CMIP6 MMM Std Gmean: 13.85 · Diff Gmean: 2.10 · Rmse: 2.90

Surface Net Shortwave Radiation — Variability (STD)

Surface Net Shortwave Radiation — Variability (STD)
Variables rss
Models ifs-fesom
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units W/m2
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 11.87 · Diff Gmean: 0.83 · Rmse: 2.53

Surface Net Shortwave Radiation — Variability Bias (STD diff)

Surface Net Shortwave Radiation — Variability Bias (STD diff)
Variables rss
Models ifs-fesom
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units W/m2
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 11.87 · Diff Gmean: 0.83 · Rmse: 2.53

Surface Net Shortwave Radiation (Clear-Sky) — Variability (STD)

Surface Net Shortwave Radiation (Clear-Sky) — Variability (STD)
Variables rsscs
Models ifs-fesom
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units W/m2
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 3.99 · Diff Gmean: 0.56 · Rmse: 3.14

Surface Net Shortwave Radiation (Clear-Sky) — Variability Bias (STD diff)

Surface Net Shortwave Radiation (Clear-Sky) — Variability Bias (STD diff)
Variables rsscs
Models ifs-fesom
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units W/m2
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 3.99 · Diff Gmean: 0.56 · Rmse: 3.14

TOA Net Shortwave Radiation — Variability (STD)

TOA Net Shortwave Radiation — Variability (STD)
Variables rst
Models ifs-fesom
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units W/m2
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 10.80 · Diff Gmean: 0.84 · Rmse: 2.39

TOA Net Shortwave Radiation — Variability Bias (STD diff)

TOA Net Shortwave Radiation — Variability Bias (STD diff)
Variables rst
Models ifs-fesom
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units W/m2
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 10.80 · Diff Gmean: 0.84 · Rmse: 2.39

TOA Net Shortwave Radiation (Clear-Sky) — Variability (STD)

TOA Net Shortwave Radiation (Clear-Sky) — Variability (STD)
Variables rstcs
Models ifs-fesom
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units W/m2
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 3.42 · Diff Gmean: 0.52 · Rmse: 2.97

TOA Net Shortwave Radiation (Clear-Sky) — Variability Bias (STD diff)

TOA Net Shortwave Radiation (Clear-Sky) — Variability Bias (STD diff)
Variables rstcs
Models ifs-fesom
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units W/m2
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 3.42 · Diff Gmean: 0.52 · Rmse: 2.97

2m Temperature — Variability (STD)

2m Temperature — Variability (STD)
Variables tas
Models ifs-fesom, CMIP6 MMM, MPI-ESM1-2-LR/r1i1p1f1, GISS-E2-1-G/r1i1p1f2, IPSL-CM6A-LR/r1i1p1f1, ACCESS-ESM1-5/r1i1p1f1, EC-Earth3/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-CM6-1/r1i1p1f2, AWI-CM-1-1-MR/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-ESM2-1/r1i1p1f2, FGOALS-g3/r1i1p1f1, INM-CM5-0/r1i1p1f1, MRI-ESM2-0/r1i1p1f1
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units K
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 1.10 · Diff Gmean: 0.14 · Rmse: 0.28
CMIP6 MMM Std Gmean: 1.04 · Diff Gmean: 0.08 · Rmse: 0.18

2m Temperature — Variability Bias (STD diff)

2m Temperature — Variability Bias (STD diff)
Variables tas
Models ifs-fesom, CMIP6 MMM, MPI-ESM1-2-LR/r1i1p1f1, GISS-E2-1-G/r1i1p1f2, IPSL-CM6A-LR/r1i1p1f1, ACCESS-ESM1-5/r1i1p1f1, EC-Earth3/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-CM6-1/r1i1p1f2, AWI-CM-1-1-MR/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-ESM2-1/r1i1p1f2, FGOALS-g3/r1i1p1f1, INM-CM5-0/r1i1p1f1, MRI-ESM2-0/r1i1p1f1
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units K
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 1.10 · Diff Gmean: 0.14 · Rmse: 0.28
CMIP6 MMM Std Gmean: 1.04 · Diff Gmean: 0.08 · Rmse: 0.18

10m U Wind — Variability (STD)

10m U Wind — Variability (STD)
Variables uas
Models ifs-fesom, CMIP6 MMM, MPI-ESM1-2-LR/r1i1p1f1, GISS-E2-1-G/r1i1p1f2, IPSL-CM6A-LR/r1i1p1f1, ACCESS-ESM1-5/r1i1p1f1, EC-Earth3/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-CM6-1/r1i1p1f2, AWI-CM-1-1-MR/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-ESM2-1/r1i1p1f2, INM-CM5-0/r1i1p1f1, MRI-ESM2-0/r1i1p1f1
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units m/s
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 1.20 · Diff Gmean: 0.02 · Rmse: 0.17
CMIP6 MMM Std Gmean: 1.26 · Diff Gmean: 0.09 · Rmse: 0.19

10m U Wind — Variability Bias (STD diff)

10m U Wind — Variability Bias (STD diff)
Variables uas
Models ifs-fesom, CMIP6 MMM, MPI-ESM1-2-LR/r1i1p1f1, GISS-E2-1-G/r1i1p1f2, IPSL-CM6A-LR/r1i1p1f1, ACCESS-ESM1-5/r1i1p1f1, EC-Earth3/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-CM6-1/r1i1p1f2, AWI-CM-1-1-MR/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-ESM2-1/r1i1p1f2, INM-CM5-0/r1i1p1f1, MRI-ESM2-0/r1i1p1f1
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units m/s
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 1.20 · Diff Gmean: 0.02 · Rmse: 0.17
CMIP6 MMM Std Gmean: 1.26 · Diff Gmean: 0.09 · Rmse: 0.19

10m V Wind — Variability (STD)

10m V Wind — Variability (STD)
Variables vas
Models ifs-fesom, CMIP6 MMM, MPI-ESM1-2-LR/r1i1p1f1, GISS-E2-1-G/r1i1p1f2, IPSL-CM6A-LR/r1i1p1f1, ACCESS-ESM1-5/r1i1p1f1, EC-Earth3/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-CM6-1/r1i1p1f2, AWI-CM-1-1-MR/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-ESM2-1/r1i1p1f2, INM-CM5-0/r1i1p1f1, MRI-ESM2-0/r1i1p1f1
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units m/s
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 0.94 · Diff Gmean: 0.01 · Rmse: 0.13
CMIP6 MMM Std Gmean: 1.00 · Diff Gmean: 0.07 · Rmse: 0.15

10m V Wind — Variability Bias (STD diff)

10m V Wind — Variability Bias (STD diff)
Variables vas
Models ifs-fesom, CMIP6 MMM, MPI-ESM1-2-LR/r1i1p1f1, GISS-E2-1-G/r1i1p1f2, IPSL-CM6A-LR/r1i1p1f1, ACCESS-ESM1-5/r1i1p1f1, EC-Earth3/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-CM6-1/r1i1p1f2, AWI-CM-1-1-MR/r1i1p1f1, CNRM-ESM2-1/r1i1p1f2, INM-CM5-0/r1i1p1f1, MRI-ESM2-0/r1i1p1f1
Reference Dataset ERA5
Units m/s
Period 1990–2014
ifs-fesom Std Gmean: 0.94 · Diff Gmean: 0.01 · Rmse: 0.13
CMIP6 MMM Std Gmean: 1.00 · Diff Gmean: 0.07 · Rmse: 0.15